As James Madison gets ready to open the 2018-19 college basketball season, the mood around the Convocation Center is cautiously optimistic. With significant talent returning, the Dukes have fans and pundits wondering if a return to prominence is around the corner.
But ascending to the top tier of the Colonial Athletic Association won’t be easy. Defending CAA regular season champ, Northeastern, and tournament winner Charleston, each have key pieces returning. Standouts such as Justin Wright-Foreman at Hofstra, Devontae Cacok of UNC Wilmington and William & Mary’s Nathan Knight dot rosters around the rest of the league.
But JMU has talent of its own and to make a move up the CAA ranks, the Dukes need to answer five questions:
1. Can They Win Close Games?
This is likely a question everyone in the JMU locker room has grown tired of hearing, but until the Dukes start closing out contests, it’s one that will hang in the air. JMU lost 18 games by single digits last season.
The Dukes routinely took the best teams on the schedule down to the wire, losing by nine at Florida and taking College of Charleston to overtime among the examples. But with nearly the entire roster new to coach Louis Rowe’s system, the Dukes often collapsed in late-game situations. Blowing a 10-point lead to Drexel in the CAA Tournament might have been the most frustrating example.
If JMU had been able to come up with victories in even half of those close losses, the perception of the team would have changed dramatically.
2. Where’s The Ceiling For Matt Lewis?
Senior Stuckey Mosley, a preseason second-team All-CAA selection who averaged nearly 19 points per game last season, is the unquestioned leader and go-to guy for this team.
But if Mosley is the Dukes’ Batman, sophomore Matt Lewis is more than just his Robin. With three seasons ahead of him, Lewis has potential to go down as one of JMU’s all-time greats. Lewis is a preseason honorable mention All-CAA pick after scoring 14.5 points per game last year. But consider this, in conference play, Lewis and Mosley averaged identical 17.7 points and 2.4 assists per game.
When asked during the offseason if Lewis could develop into a star, Rowe said “I’d say a kid who scores 33 points on Charleston as a freshman might already be there.”
3. How Does Playing Time Get Divided?
Rowe won’t say who will start the opener, but has more or less acknowledged Mosley, Lewis and sophomore guard Darius Banks are locks to start. Senior big man Develle Phillips was curiously left out of that group after starting most of the season last year, but it’s a safe bet when everyone is at full strength Phillips will see plenty of time on the floor.
The Dukes want to establish an eight or nine-man rotation, but there are several candidates for minutes behind those four returning starters. Freshman guard Deshon Parker has impressed coaches, perhaps we’ll see some four-guard looks. Sophomore forwards Dwight Wilson, Greg Jones and Zach Jacobs should all be in the mix as well.
The X-factor could be senior Cameron Smith, who has recovered from his second ACL surgery and was granted a sixth year of eligibility. Athletically, he’s out of this world. But after sitting out nearly all of last season, how quickly can he adjust to the speed of the game?
4. Will The Defense Step Up?
Rowe and his staff have been stressing defense the entire offseason. Ask him how a player is looking in practice or scrimmages and they won’t tell you how many points they scored, but how well they guarded.
It’s clear the Dukes believe that is the key to making a jump up the CAA standings.
Last season JMU allowed 75.4 points per game, fifth in the conference. That’s not terrible, but it’s also no coincidence CAA’s two best teams, Northeastern and Charleston, held opponents to less than 69 points a night.
The Dukes played 18 games last season decided by two possession or less, or in overtime. One of two extra defensive stops per game could be the difference between the top tier of the CAA or finishing near the bottom.
5. Is The Program On The Rise?
After back-to-back 10-win seasons in Rowe's first two years, several signs point to yes. An inexperienced team was competitive with good teams last year. The Dukes have a talented group of sophomores to build around and recruiting has hit a new level with more three, four and even five-star prospects showing interest.
But ultimately that question will be answered on the court, starting Tuesday night against Eastern Mennonite.
