Published May 5, 2020
DECIPHERING UNDECIDEDS
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Greg Madia  •  DukesofJMU
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Uncertain MLB Draft Leaves Ikenberry, JMU Pitchers With Questions

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All of the uncertain, yet realistically potential, scenarios have crossed the minds of Justin Showalter and Nick Stewart.

The pair of James Madison right-handed pitchers had their junior seasons cut short due to the coronavirus and now the two are waiting on Major League Baseball to give them each clearer indication of what’s next.

“There’s not much to plan for,” Showalter, a Turner Ashby graduate, said. “There’s not a clear set goal in mind, but you can prepare for the wide variety of possibilities that could come within the next month or so.”

Among those are two possibilities: going undrafted and then continuing to pitch for the Dukes without any decision needing to be made, or being drafted and then deciding between signing a contract to begin a professional career or foregoing that opportunity to play another year or two in school. Showalter and Stewart would retain junior eligibility if they return to JMU.

Said Stewart: “I feel like a middle school girl in a relationship and I need closure on what’s going to happen and then I’ll be ready to roll.”

In late March, MLB and the MLB Player’s Association agreed the 2020 Draft could be cut to as few as five rounds, according to MLB.com. Regularly, the MLB Draft consists of 40 rounds held over three days, but because of the pandemic this isn’t a normal year and the two sides decided to alter the format.

Last week, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported MLB hadn’t decided on whether its draft would be five rounds or 10 rounds this year. This past Thursday, The Athletic reported MLB proposed a 10-round event that the MLBPA rejected. MLB Network reported the MLB Draft will take place on its originally scheduled date of June 10, but the league hasn’t announced an official date nor format yet.

That leaves Showalter, Stewart, and, frankly, the JMU baseball program with many unknowns.

The two pitchers and Dukes coach Marlin Ikenberry all said if the MLB Draft was 40 rounds as it usually is then Showalter and Stewart each had a strong chance to be selected. But the combination of fewer rounds and not knowing how many picks will be made during this year’s event makes gauging the projection even tougher.

“Age and eligibility does play a factor in kids’ decisions,” Ikenberry said, “and obviously signing bonus is a factor, too. We’ve talked to Justin and Nick, and the way I always leave it with ‘em is, ‘It’s got to be the perfect scenario, the perfect opportunity for you,’ for each of them to sign. So I advise them that if they get what they need to get and it’s the right opportunity, I wish them the best and I’ll always be there for them. Then if it’s not, we want them to come back and pitch at JMU.”

Stewart has been a fixture in the Dukes’ weekend rotation since arriving on campus as a freshman when he earned All-Colonial Athletic Association rookie team honors. For his career, he boasts a 3.19 ERA with 147 strikeouts over 155 innings. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound hard thrower pitched in the Cape Cod League this past summer and was also mentioned as one of the top MLB Draft prospects in CAA going into the 2020 season by Baseball America.

“It’s been a dream my whole entire life to be a professional baseball player,” Stewart said, “so I think if I got that call today, I could go tomorrow and be ready for it. My whole college career has been training up to be a professional baseball player and perfecting each aspect of my game to be ready for it.

“… But no one knows what’ll happen tomorrow, so it’s really what you think will be best for you and your future. You’ve got to put all those factors together. With going back to school, you have the ability to get that [degree] and obviously, that’s the reason I went to school off the bat out of high school. But there’s also the factor of how many chances do you get to play professional baseball? Is it one chance? Is it two chances? So you really have to do what you think is best for yourself and what I’ll do is what’s best for me and my future.”

Ikenberry said Stewart could succeed in the pro ranks.

“He’s got the body, the live arm,” Ikenberry said. “He’s been up in the mid-90s and he’s got four pitches. He throws a ton of strikes and he is young. He’s fairly young for his age and his school year. He really should be a sophomore age-wise, and so I think that’s attractive to a lot of teams that’ll look at growth and projectability. They possibly could see a couple more (miles-per-hour) on that fastball and him getting stronger and that’s every Major League Baseball scout’s dream.”

The stock for Showalter jumped during the shortened campaign the Dukes did have.

Showalter went 4-0 with a 0.67 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. He tossed the program’s first one-hit shutout since 2009 when he blanked Quinnipiac and strung together a stretch of 24 2/3 frames without allowing an earned run, which was the longest such stretch for any JMU pitcher since 1995. His four wins and opposing batting average against of .144 topped the CAA.

“I was pretty excited for [the MLB Draft] and hopeful about that aspect of where things were headed,” Showalter said. “I wasn’t sure of what round, what team or money or anything like that, but I did have a feeling I would be able to go this year and as the season went on and I was throwing pretty well, that possibility just seemed more and more likely, so I was pretty excited.”

Ikenberry said: “His pitch ability was outstanding this year. There were several games where he hardly got into three-ball counts. I thought pitching to contact, getting the ground balls he got and with his composure, he just was very poised and mature.”

Showalter said there are so many difficult factors to ponder about his future and all the decisions he might have to make.

“It’s just hard to get guidance right now because no one really knows what’s going on,” Showalter explained. “Everyone is in the same boat and waiting to see what happens because it depends on how many rounds there are and when I would go. There are a lot of decisions to be made especially with this extra year of eligibility because I have no idea what the future looks like right now with what the draft would look like or what it would be like even if I did get drafted, being that there might not be a minor league season. There’s just a lot that’s still undecided.”

Showalter said while he waits, he’s trying as best he can to stay in shape. He has access to weights, can run, and returns to his Turner Ashby stomping grounds to throw his bullpens to his dad dressed in full catcher’s gear.

“My mom and dad passed on that assignment when I got over 80 mph,” Stewart said with a laugh when hearing who Showalter was pitching to. “I’ve almost got a Little League bounce back that you throw into and the ball bounces off, but I’ve made some adjustments to that. It wouldn’t be ideal to throw into that and see the ball fly over your head each time, definitely not good for you mentality as a pitcher, so I’ve got a mattress cover and it’s like a pad I throw into. It’s not the same visuals or listening that you get from a catcher’s glove popping, but it’ll do for now.”

Last year, four pitchers from JMU were picked during the MLB Draft including Nick Robertson, who went in the seventh round to the Los Angeles Dodgers, becoming the highest selection from the school since 2011.

Beyond Showalter and Stewart, according to Ikenberry, senior left-handed reliever Brett Ayer and senior Fox Semones, who played on the infield and in the outfield throughout his JMU career, were also fairly safe bets to be selected if the MLB Draft wasn’t altered this year.

“There were teams watching them and paying attention to their seasons,” Ikenberry said. “And it’s unfortunate. I think the Major League Baseball Draft is very unpredictable. … We have been talking to Fox about coming back to school for another year and he’s been leaning hard on that because I do think he has the tools to play at the next level, and that’s the same with Brett.

“But Brett’s interesting because he’s not your typical 6-foot-5 throwing 95 mph, but in college baseball, his numbers are very good. So if there’s an organization that relies on stats and numbers, then Ayer’s name is going to be in the mix for them based on his numbers.”

Ikenberry said it’s also possible his players get offered contracts as free agents if they go undrafted – one more wrench into the roster management conundrum the Dukes coach must deal with.

“We’re still working through what seniors are going to come back,” he said, “and we’re working through the guys who were in their junior year and projected to get drafted, but there is always a little bit of play with guys who you think could come back and won’t come back.

“But like I said, we could come back and lose our two best arms, and so when you look at the uncontrollables, there are a lot of them. And when you look at college baseball right now, looking at rosters, you’re looking at it through a very different microscope than you did a year ago.”