Two weeks of the regular season remain and sorting out which Colonial Athletic Association programs will play in the postseason isn’t any easier than it was a month ago.
Aside from James Madison, having already clinched at least a share of the league title with its win over New Hampshire on Saturday, there are no other postseason guarantees for the CAA yet. Though, the Wildcats at No. 10 joined the Dukes at No. 2 as the only two conference members to appear in the NCAA Division I Championship Committee’s lone public reveal of rankings last Wednesday.
Last year the league became the first in FCS history to send six teams to the postseason, but that is unlikely to happen this time around.
Here’s how CAA teams stack up with two weeks left to play.
Undoubtedly In (1): James Madison
JMU (9-1, 6-0) boasts the third-longest winning streak in the FCS, having rattled off nine straight victories since its season-opening loss at FBS West Virginia.
During the Dukes’ run, they’ve become a dominating bunch and currently lead the conference in scoring offense (40.4 points per game), rushing offense (236.3 yards per game), total offense (470.5 yards per game), scoring defense (16.1 points per game), rushing defense (69.9 yards per game) and total defense (285.2 yards per game). Quarterback Ben DiNucci, who has 20 total touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, is a candidate for CAA Offensive Player of Year and defensive ends Ron’Dell Carter and John Daka are candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, having combined for 17 sacks and 35.5 tackles for loss.
“I think this team is on a mission,” JMU coach Curt Cignetti said.
A win this coming Saturday over Richmond gives the Dukes the outright CAA crown and keeps them on track to be the No. 2 seed for the postseason, which would mean hosting playoff contests all the way through the national semifinals.
Should Be In (2): Towson, Villanova
Towson coach Rob Ambrose didn’t sugarcoat anything after the Tigers (6-4, 3-3) dropped to 4-4 following their loss to JMU on Oct. 26.
“You got to win out or you’re not going to playoffs,” Ambrose said then about what he planned to tell his team in the aftermath of defeat.
Towson hasn’t lost since, knocking off foes – Delaware and Stony Brook – in similar situations along the way. With a pair of opponents sitting in the bottom half of the league standings, William & Mary and Elon, left on its schedule, Towson is in prime position to return to the postseason for a second straight year.
In the case of Villanova (7-3, 4-3), its victory over Richmond on Saturday halted a three-game losing streak and showed the Wildcats can win from behind. In all three of their losses the Wildcats blew second-half leads, but on Saturday, spurred on by linebacker Drew Wiley’s interception they outscored Richmond 14-0 in the second half to win.
If Villanova can get to nine wins, the possibility of earning a first-round bye is in play depending on what happens nationally.
Could Go Either Way (4): Albany, Maine, New Hampshire, Richmond
These four are all in lose-and-be-done scenarios.
Albany (6-4, 4-2) hosts New Hampshire (5-4, 4-2) this Saturday and both teams have been more often good than bad this fall. The Great Danes have relied on freshman quarterback Jeff Undercuffler, who has thrown for 31 touchdowns this year.
“We have a lot of confidence in our ability to throw the ball down the field,” Albany coach Greg Gattuso said this week on the CAA coaches teleconference. “I love it. I love what we’re doing. I like the deep shots we take.”
Aside from giving up 54 points to JMU, New Hampshire hasn’t allowed more than 24 points to an FCS opponent while leaning on a seasoned secondary this season. UNH has 13 interceptions as a team.
The difference in résumés between the two are slight, but New Hampshire’s loss in non-conference action to Holy Cross is the worst setback considering Albany thrashed Lafayette, which beat Holy Cross this past Saturday. Of course, the head-to-head matchup this weekend will sort this out. New Hampshire is also only playing an 11-game schedule this year while Albany has a 12-game slate.
If the Wildcats get by the Great Danes, a win-and-move-on game pitting rivals UNH and Maine (5-5, 3-3) in the Battle for the Brice-Cowell Musket to finish the regular season would take place assuming the Black Bears can beat Rhode Island this Saturday. With three straight wins, Maine is hottest team in the league outside of JMU.
“We’re trying to take that championship mentality every week,” Maine coach Nick Charlton said. “And we believe that we can control everything in front of us, so we’re right now focused on Rhode Island.”
Maine also dropped two decisions to FBS opponents this season, so winning out would send the Black Bears to a 7-3 mark against FCS competition.
As for Richmond (5-5, 4-2), a loss Saturday to JMU surely eliminates the Spiders from playoff contention because failing to get above .500 probably isn’t good enough for an at-large berth. But an upset win over the Dukes, undeniably boosts Richmond’s chances.
Out (5): Elon, Delaware, Rhode Island, Stony Brook, William & Mary
It was tempting to place Stony Brook (5-5, 2-4) in the category above, but the Seawolves have suffered too many losses to teams – New Hampshire and Richmond – in that grouping. Other than that since Elon (4-6, 3-4), Delaware (4-6, 2-4), Rhode Island (2-8, 0-6) and William & Mary (4-6, 2-4) can’t finish above .500, those four will be watching the postseason from home.
